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Monday, March 25, 2013

Cyprus: Failure or Success?

The initial goal was to save Cyprus`s banks, well this they didn't manage to achieve. So If we look at it from this way, then it was a failure. But of course, by now nobody will remember what they really wanted to do in first place. The last week the politicians made such a big theatrical play, that by now all people remember is that they saved Cyprus from going bankrupt. And we are thankful for our saviors. Because once again they have us believing that it was such a long week for them and they tried really hard and they fought for us, and they managed to save us. The truth on the other side is, that all this was a well ahead planned act. They throw some phrases around, make it look like its the end, so people will panic, then they pretend to try really hard, then they come out looking like saviors just like when Moses made water out of the rocks in the desert. Unfortunately most people don't realize that they new well ahead Cyprus will not go bankrupt,they did the same act before, not once. They did this with Greece, we panic and they enjoy it, because like this the people seem to forget whats really happening. They just think, oh my god what will happen if we go bankrupt, it never happened before, we don't know how is it going to go down, so please just not the uncertainty. People rather live with whatever the troika forces on them, then face the unknown. Of course the agreement came in the last minute, not a moment before, just like everytime.
In the beginning they were talking about a 9.9% cut on the deposits above a 100.000 euros, by now they are going to close down Laiki bank, thousand of people will loose there jobs (which nowdays is almost a death sentence, because its so hard to find an other job), and any uninsured bank-accounts will be almost lost almost completely. The uninsured bank accounts are to raise 4.2 billion euros, which is far from the 5.8 billion Cyprus is needing (so where is the rest of the money going to come from? Obviously there will be some sort of take outs from the bigger deposits in the Bank of Cyprus too, no?!). Of course everybody is happy to hear that there will be no levy. Yes, that's true, there will be no levy, but at what cost?
IMF chief C. Lagarde said:
"This agreement provides the basis for restoring trust in the banking system, which is key to supporting growth."
Restoring trust in the banking system? For who? Who will trust a bank after this? Yes, the small deposits will be saved, for now. Who says this will not happen again in Cyprus or elsewhere? This is something that happens now for the first time, and after this they will be implementing this anywhere else, if they feel its needed. And the next time it happens, who is to say that they will leave out the small deposits? (There is an EU law that says, that the government has to ensure the deposits smaller then 100.000 euros, but if a government is bankrupt and has no money to pay salaries and pensions what makes you think that they will pay back the lost deposits? Honestly nobody thinks about this?! Yes, you can have a claim, what is it good for if there is nobody to get it from? There are so many people around the world that have been in a situation when somebody owes them money, but this person has nothing, no money no property so you can not get your money, you have the claim, but its worthless!) Anybody that has any brain will not trust a bank which is in the territory of the troika. I rather keep my money under my cover or in the chicken coop than in a bank, at least i know its there, even if like this I don't get interest after it. Or invest it in something solid, like a property, because whatever happens, the property will be there even if the economy falls.
The other problem Cyrpus will be facing the coming time is that lots of people have lost faith and trust in the banks, and who can blame them? As far as I know, we live in a free world so who is a government to tell me I can not take my money elsewhere, because in Cyprus they did on Friday. They will try everything for people not to empty the banks completely. Which is still a big chance, at least for those who happen to have a bigger horizon then what they want people to have. The story the troika and other politicians want you to believe is this: yes there was a chance for Cyprus to go bankrupt, but we avoided it, we saved your deposits because all that is lost is Russian money, so don't take your money out of the banks, it will be safe and sound. But the truth is that is that your savings are not safe, and it was not all Russian money that is lost.
They try  to make it look like that there is not a Cyprian or anybody else except for a Russian, who can have more then a 100.000 euros, why? I don`t understand this. Yes when you have nothing, and you compare it with a 100.000 euros with nowdays cut down salaries, then it is a lot of money. But think about it in an other way, you have been working your entire life and you collected for your retirement years, or you are collecting for sending your 3-4 kids to college, or you inherited a house that you sold, this money is not that much in that aspect. But its again a brainwashing technique, to ensure European people dont think they have lost, and a couple of Russian billionaires can afford to pay and they wont even feel this amount. And if they can`t? Yes I am sure there are some people that stole, cheated or killed for the money they have, there is lots of people who get their money illegally, but why do politicians think everybody is like them? Everybody thinks everyone else is like them, yes that's true. But you have to first of all have good faith in humans, because if I think everybody cheats, lies, kills for money then I don`t want to live in this world, second of all most of us are just average people, working hard to save something for the future for our dreams, and up to my knowledge we are the majority, not them!!!
And on the other hand can I ask that simply question why should anybody pay? Regardless of nationality. But this doesn't seem to bother Russia, since they announced they will be revising the 2011 2.5bn euro loan to Cyprus, to contribute to the restructuring efforts.
For me it looks like the troika is punishing Cyprus for being creative, Cyprus is a small country, torn apart by a war that still lives in people, and they have a lot of problems, so they try to make the best they can. On an island that struggles with water problems they can not survive on agriculture, so they try to make it on other things, like their banking system. It may not have been a perfect or even a good system, but the troika lead by Germany thought, how dare they trying to do this?
On one side they are saying there will be no measures on the accounts in the Bank of Cyprus, and that there will be no levy on any accounts. On the other hand Mr Dijsselbloem said: "The percentage to be levied on large deposits in the Bank of Cyprus will be resolved in the coming weeks." So where is the truth now?
The trouble is not over yet! Except Laiki and the Bank of Cyprus all other will open up tomorrow morning, the other two on Thursday, or at least its what they are saying.
Well after a completely ruined long weekend people tomorrow will get back to work, of course they made sure that people spent this three days worrying instead of their families, and instead of resting they will go back to work stressed and tired, but who cares? Its a "small" price to pay for saving Cyprus. The spring just started on the 21st of March and it brought with it trouble, I wonder what else we will see this spring?


UPDATE: They have announced later yesterday that no Bank will open in Cyprus until Thursday.


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