And there is light at the end of the tunnel! At least that`s how I see it. Finally somebody said no to a bailout demand. In the recent years we got used to hearing demand from the EU, the IMF, the ECB and warning after warning from Germany and others that unless the troubled countries do as they are told (without any negotiations) they will go bankrupt. But nobody up to now called them out on their bluff. And yesterday Cyprus finally did it. So congrats!! Of course this brings with itself a whole new set of questions, but for a moment lets just celebrate the fact that the Cyprian people said no and so did their parliament.
They said that either Cyprus implements these measures, or they go bankrupt. So now that they did not, this should mean that they go bankrupt, pulling with themselves maybe even the whole euro-zone. Unfortunately I don`t think that they are going to let this happen. Probably they will come up with some different terms, or it might even happen that the "Dictators" have to back up and save Cyprus even like this. If we just look at things on the surface this would be logical, since they invested plenty of money and time trying to avoid the collapse of the euro-zone the last couple of years, so why give up now? But this could mean that countries who have been bowing and saying yes to everything on bailout terms might get a little angry. Because lets face it, for example the Greek people have been saying for a long while now, why don't you negotiate at least with them? And now if Cyprus gets saved even though they don`t do as they are told, then why should the other countries implement anything? If you get saved whether you do what they say or not, then why do it?! So this could be a ground for lots of anger bursting out, because up to yesterday we were all told, that do it or you will go bankrupt. Even though nobody thinks about the other side. If Cyprus goes bankrupt it will not just have an affect on Cyprus. It will have an affect on those countries too that are holding us at gunpoint. If the Greeks would have had the courage to say no earlier, maybe by now we would now how this is going to play out. Unfortunately they didn't, so now is the time to find out. The EU will have a big problem if now they are forced to back up, because they will not have the upper hand the next time there are negotiations about bailout measures.
On the other side in a couple days we might have to face harsh reality. That the EU says if Cyprus doesn't bend, we will not help. And then comes the wait... Whether Cyprus goes bankrupt alone and the rest survives, injured but still saveable. Or we all go with Cyprus down the drains. Because it can happen that after Cyprus exits the euro, other countries will follow it in bankruptcy. And then it can all go down like the domino....one after the other, and we may have to learn to live in a different world.
But before this happens lets also look at this dispute a little deeper. Because don't forget this time its not just about Cyprus vs. EU, there is also Russia in the picture. And we might be close by, and we might have peace on the surface, but it might not be so nice if we scratch this surface. If Cyprus in any way implement these or similar measures and Russian investors take their money out of the Cyprian banks, then those banks might have to close down forever. On the other hand, if Cyprus doesnt get the bailout money the banks still might have to close down foerver. Well, thats a tricky one...but if they don't vote and the Russian investors do leave their money in the banks, who is to say that if on Thursday they do open the banks the Cypriots will not take their money out, which could also lead to bankruptcy of them. I sure would not feel safe leaving a cent in the bank after this and I am assuming I am not alone with this thought. Because now it was a "small" amount they try to take away from it, but what`s the guarantee that next time this will not be a bigger percentage?
But back to the Russia vs. EU match, or I could say Russia vs. Germany (I seem to remember a couple of these battles over the time of history....) and lets see who has the stronger punch, who will win this game? Because it`s not Cyprus, that's for sure.
Feel free to comment :-)
They said that either Cyprus implements these measures, or they go bankrupt. So now that they did not, this should mean that they go bankrupt, pulling with themselves maybe even the whole euro-zone. Unfortunately I don`t think that they are going to let this happen. Probably they will come up with some different terms, or it might even happen that the "Dictators" have to back up and save Cyprus even like this. If we just look at things on the surface this would be logical, since they invested plenty of money and time trying to avoid the collapse of the euro-zone the last couple of years, so why give up now? But this could mean that countries who have been bowing and saying yes to everything on bailout terms might get a little angry. Because lets face it, for example the Greek people have been saying for a long while now, why don't you negotiate at least with them? And now if Cyprus gets saved even though they don`t do as they are told, then why should the other countries implement anything? If you get saved whether you do what they say or not, then why do it?! So this could be a ground for lots of anger bursting out, because up to yesterday we were all told, that do it or you will go bankrupt. Even though nobody thinks about the other side. If Cyprus goes bankrupt it will not just have an affect on Cyprus. It will have an affect on those countries too that are holding us at gunpoint. If the Greeks would have had the courage to say no earlier, maybe by now we would now how this is going to play out. Unfortunately they didn't, so now is the time to find out. The EU will have a big problem if now they are forced to back up, because they will not have the upper hand the next time there are negotiations about bailout measures.
On the other side in a couple days we might have to face harsh reality. That the EU says if Cyprus doesn't bend, we will not help. And then comes the wait... Whether Cyprus goes bankrupt alone and the rest survives, injured but still saveable. Or we all go with Cyprus down the drains. Because it can happen that after Cyprus exits the euro, other countries will follow it in bankruptcy. And then it can all go down like the domino....one after the other, and we may have to learn to live in a different world.
But before this happens lets also look at this dispute a little deeper. Because don't forget this time its not just about Cyprus vs. EU, there is also Russia in the picture. And we might be close by, and we might have peace on the surface, but it might not be so nice if we scratch this surface. If Cyprus in any way implement these or similar measures and Russian investors take their money out of the Cyprian banks, then those banks might have to close down forever. On the other hand, if Cyprus doesnt get the bailout money the banks still might have to close down foerver. Well, thats a tricky one...but if they don't vote and the Russian investors do leave their money in the banks, who is to say that if on Thursday they do open the banks the Cypriots will not take their money out, which could also lead to bankruptcy of them. I sure would not feel safe leaving a cent in the bank after this and I am assuming I am not alone with this thought. Because now it was a "small" amount they try to take away from it, but what`s the guarantee that next time this will not be a bigger percentage?
But back to the Russia vs. EU match, or I could say Russia vs. Germany (I seem to remember a couple of these battles over the time of history....) and lets see who has the stronger punch, who will win this game? Because it`s not Cyprus, that's for sure.
Feel free to comment :-)
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